Author comment- Asian anxieties in a new era
Last modified on 2012-01-12 06:53:55 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary appeared in Today (Singapore) newspaper on 26 December, 2011.
History may judge this was the year when the 21st Century really began. Back in 2000, continuity seemed assured, with the United States consolidating power and primacy. One decade on, changes potentially upend the global balance.
The financial crisis that began in the West in late 2008 is entering a second and more dangerous phase. The euro zone shows up not only sovereign financial problems but also the difficulties in exercising collective leadership.
The US is not in acute crisis and its economy showed better demand in the last quarter of this year. But Washington DC is gridlocked – witness the failure to agree on ways to cut the budget deficit. From very different ends of the American spectrum, the Tea Party revolution and the Occupy Wall Street movement evidence a welling restiveness.
Across the Middle East, the Arab Spring has turned into a longer season of uncertainty. S… (Read more)
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Author comment- Facing a hard winter, can China find ‘softness’?
Last modified on 2012-01-12 06:53:02 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary appeared in Today (Singapore) newspaper on 15 December and the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) on 17 December, 2011.
The coming winter looks difficult for China. Beyond the seasonal cold and even the thick air pollution in Beijing, there are concerns about the economy, society and regional politics.
As Western markets stall, the clear priority is to keep the economy going. Chinese exports and manufacturing output have fallen and growth rates have slowed. Housing prices are in decline and, if unchecked, can ripple through the credit system.
When the crisis began at the end of 2008, Beijing pumped in a massive stimulus package and loosened credit policies. Its economy is still grappling with the consequent distortions and that formula cannot now be repeated easily and without cost.
But inflation slowed in this last quarter and, with some room to manoeuvre, the reserve ratio for banks has been lowered. This signals the intention to ease … (Read more)
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Author comment- Signals are not benign
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:44:14 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary first appeared in the Asia Weekly version of The China Daily paper on 9 December, 2011.
US return to Asia may focus on security-centred politics and win-lose economics to contain China.
The historic visit to Myanmar last week by US State Secretary Hillary Clinton climaxes a flurry of American moves in the region.
The Obama administration has proclaimed that they have returned to Asia and their active engagement is remarkable when, facing many domestic challenges, a post-crisis America might easily have turned inward.
Some may feel that an engaged America is better than an isolated one. But many Asians question the nature and intention of the American return. Signals are not all together benign.
Hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Hawaii and becoming the first American leader to participate in the East Asia Summit might seem traditional summitry. But controversies with China made headlines and President Obama’s A… (Read more)
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Author comment- America’s return to Asia: Old hegemony or new engagement?
Last modified on 2011-11-29 04:47:58 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 29 November 2011.
This week, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton makes a historic high-profile visit to Myanmar even as Asians assess a flurry of American moves in the region. The Obama administration has energetically re-engaged Asia when, facing many domestic challenges, a post-crisis America might easily have turned inwards.
An engaged America is better than an isolated one. But Asians question the nature and intention of the American return to the region. Signals are not all together benign.
Hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Hawaii and becoming the first American leader to participate in the East Asia Summit might seem traditional summitry. But controversies with China made headlines and President Barack Obama’s Australian stopover marked establishing a military base with 2,500 marines on the Asian periphery.
Many – especially in Beijing – rea… (Read more)
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Author comment- Beyond the handshakes, leadership of Asia-Pacific in turmoil
Last modified on 2011-11-11 02:31:21 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 10 November 2011.
Leaders from Asia will soon be hosted by United States President Barack Obama for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Hawaii. The gathering comes on the heels of the G-20 Cannes meeting, preoccupied with the euro zone crisis. The East Asia Summit will soon follow, convened by the Association of South-East Asian Nations and including, for the first time, Russia and the US.
What can this season of international summits do about the looming global downturn? Can Asia and the US, sans Europeans, cooperate to tackle worsening economic conditions? Can Asia find ways to continue growth?
Expect no cure-alls. Policy options have narrowed since the first coordinated efforts at end-2008 to pump in money and loosen credit. Those policies have run their course, with mixed results and increased political backwash.
In America, joblessness and inequalities run high and… (Read more)
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Author comment- Euro zone crisis: What Asia can do
Last modified on 2011-10-17 04:39:37 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This story was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 17 October 2011.
Fears about Europe have rippled through the global economy and Asian markets are not immune. At times, assurances are given and the euro rallies but the euro zone crisis is far from over. The rescue of Greece is just one issue. Far larger greater risks are posed from spillovers to other economies and European banks.
United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has warned against catastrophic risks and called for stronger measures. European finance ministers have met and leaders pledge to present how they will deal with their crisis to the G-20 by early next month.
Will this be effective? Given the possible global impacts, what should Asians expect? What, if anything, can the Asians do?
Some Europeans hope that Asians would mobilise their considerable reserves to buoy them up. When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao toured Europe last month, offers were plentiful to sell government bond… (Read more)
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Simon Tay quoted by Reuters on reform in Myanmar and Asia
Last modified on 2011-10-17 04:38:31 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This quote was featured in a Reuters article on 16 October 2011.
Although part of a trend toward more political openness in the region, developments in Myanmar and other Asian countries have been driven mostly by governments or through elections, rather than a replay of the Arab Spring.
Recent changes in Myanmar appear to have been driven by the government, rather than any popular sentiment, as could be said about Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, says Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“Ground up policies do matter, democracies which we called autocratic or elite before are having to recognise the ground elements much more,” he said. “The question is whether people outside those elites can use those sentiments against the established elites in all three countries.”
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Simon Tay quoted on foreign labour in Singapore
Last modified on 2011-10-17 04:34:56 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This story was featured in the Business Times (Singapore) newspaper and Channel NewsAsia on 11 October 2011.
Singapore’s dependence on foreign labour is currently the highest among East Asian economies.
This came through at a two-hour discussion on Tuesday among employers, union leaders and economic experts at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA).
They met to discuss issues regarding Singapore’s foreign labour policy as part of an ongoing research project by Senior Research Fellow Dr Chia Siow Yue.
The project is funded by the International Development Research Centre of Canada.
The discussion noted that increased foreign labour in Singapore has resulted in growing discontent among the resident labour force, which has voiced concerns over the large number of foreign workers entering the job market as well as the overcrowding of transport and housing services.
But those who attended also emphasised the need to recognise the import… (Read more)
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Author comment- Lessons from the Taiwan arms deal
Last modified on 2011-10-10 01:31:10 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This story was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 6 Oct 2011. It was also published in the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) on 7 Oct 2011 under the title “Weighing the Realities”.
Controversy surrounds the near-US$6-billion (S$7.85 billion) deal signed recently for the United States to help Taiwan upgrade its air force.
Beijing has protested strongly and reportedly asked Washington to reconsider or else it will downgrade military ties. American arms sales to Taiwan have always been more than a commercial decision. But the current situation may signal more.
Amid talk about American decline, there are signs of Chinese assertion. The dynamics around the Taiwan arms deal may have implications for others in Asia.
Many economies hub around China for growth, and yet wonder whether having closer ties with Beijing helps or hurts. Under current President Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan has courted better cross-strait relations and entered into an Econ… (Read more)
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Simon Tay interviewed by CNBC on growing tension in South China Sea
Last modified on 2011-10-06 02:21:07 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Risk of Miscalculation in South China Sea: Ex-US Official
The growing tension between China, Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea could lead to a miscalculation and further escalation between the parties, a former advisor to U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney warned on Friday.
His warning comes a day after the Financial Times reported that a Chinese ship had confronted an Indian navy vessel shortly after it left a Vietnamese port in July.
“I think generally, the biggest risk is miscalculation. It’s very unusual for this kind of stuff to be happening so broadly,” Stephen Yates, President of DC International Advisory and a former deputy assistant to the U.S. Vice President on national security affairs, said. (Watch the full interview here.)
His warning follows a report in June from the Lowy Institute that said the risk of war because of Chinese actions in the disputed seas was rising.
Analysts say the risks are growing because of a mixture of existing territoria… (Read more)
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Simon Tay was chief judge at this year’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award
Last modified on 2011-09-05 02:24:17 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay was chief judge at this year’s Entrepreneur of the Year (EYA) award run by the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises and the Rotary Club of Singapore. The Entrepreneur of the Year Award salutes and honours outstanding local entrepreneurs who have shown exemplary performance as business owners in their chosen field of entrepreneurship.
Following the announcement of the award recipients last Friday, a debate erupted over the true definition of an entrepreneur after a visiting British businessman questioned the credentials of the two winners. London-based businessman Jonathan Wood, 59, said running a successful chain of restaurants or shops is not real entrepreneurship.
They were Paradise Group Holdings chief executive Eldwin Chua, 34, whose zi char stall has blossomed into a chain of 20 popular restaurants, and Mr Jimmy Fong, 46, chairman and chief executive of Apple retailer EpiCentre Holdings.
When asked to comment on Mr Wood’s opinion, Simon Tay stood by the w… (Read more)
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Author comment- Asia in a messy world
Last modified on 2011-08-22 02:07:36 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This story was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 15 Aug 2011. It was also featured in the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) newspaper on 19 Aug 2011 under the title ‘Be prepared’.
Problems in public finance in the United States and Europe have spooked markets. The debt ceiling debacle in Washington shows how divided politics have become. Riots first in Greece and now in the United Kingdom dramatically signal how governments struggle as downturns upend the expectations of citizens. Even as order is being restored, the outlook is for a potential recession in the West and an accompanying political malaise.
Coming in the wake of uprisings in the Arab world, there are reasons to worry that, for too much of the world, Spring is turning into a long and torrid Summer. What of Asia?
For most countries for much of the past year, the region has withstood contagion from revolutionary politics and continued to grow rapidly. Some may trumpet this … (Read more)
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Simon Tay to be a featured local author at Singapore Writers Festival 2011
Last modified on 2011-08-15 05:36:43 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This story was featured in mypaper (Singapore) on 11 August 2011. To read the full article, please click here.
Simon Tay will be one of the local writers featured at this year’s Singapore Writers Festival (SWF). His novel City of Small Blessings earned him the Singapore Literature Prize 2010.
He will be joined by 120 other authors, including American economist Steven Levitt, who penned the best-selling book Freakonomics (2005) and its sequel Superfreakonomics (2009).
Other international names announced so far include Indian novelist-diplomat Vikas Swarup, whose debut novel Q&A (2005) was adapted into Oscar-winning movie Slumdog Millionaire (2008); Pulitzer prize-winning American author Michael Chabon (The Mysteries Of Pittsburgh, Wonder Boys); and China’s Bi Feiyu, who won last year’s Ma… (Read more)
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Simon Tay interviewed by the Lianhe Zaobao
Last modified on 2011-08-10 07:59:19 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao, SIIA Chairman Simon Tay reflects back on his career as a literary author and public intellectual, and shares a little about his personal life, his family, and issues close to him.
This story was featured in the Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore) on 2 August 2011 [view full article - pdf download]… (Read more)
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Simon Tay interviewed by BBC on Asia reinvesting in itself
Last modified on 2011-07-29 07:25:44 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay was interviewed by the BBC World Service on his idea of ‘Asia reinvesting in itself’. The interview was featured on the World Business Report, an early morning news bulletin focusing on the the latest global financial and business news.
Simon Tay was asked about the perspective he offered as part of Aviva’s Future Prosperity Panel. Asked about economic challenges to Asia, Simon Tay said while everyone talks about astounding levels of growth being experienced by some Asian countries, it is questionable how this wealth is being distributed and whether it is really encouraging a growth that is sustainable and will trickle through society.
Listen to the recording of the full interview via the BBC iPlayer or read the transcript of the interview…. (Read more)
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Author comment- Can Asia make it on non-nuclear options alone?
Last modified on 2011-07-25 08:43:18 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper, on 20 July 2011, and in the Jakarta Post on 25 July 2011.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has called for an end to the country’s nuclear energy programme. This follows a similar pledge by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Before the triple tragedy that struck Japan and problems with the Fukushima nuclear reactors, such decisions would have been unimaginable.
Predictions were instead for a nuclear energy renaissance, with the promise of abundant, cheap power that is low in carbon emissions. Post-Fukushima, long-standing minorities of anti-nuclear protestors have gained wider support in society.
But is going non-nuclear a workable policy? Or is it simply caving in to popular but temporary and perhaps overstated fears?
In Japan, Mr Kan’s call is already facing opposition from pro-nuclear energy companies and Liberal Democratic Party opposition politicians. With his low poll ratings, some suggest … (Read more)
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Simon Tay comments on ASEAN Regional Forum for AFP
Last modified on 2011-07-20 02:34:26 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Foreign ministers and senior officials are gathering in Bali for the ASEAN Regional Forum, with the main security summit at the end of the week. Most eyes will be on how delegates navigate the choppy diplomatic waters of the South China Sea.
“Differences exist and dialogue should not be stifled. But it is a conversation best guided by calm, context and norms,” said Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“If not, a shouting or potentially shooting contest may result.”
Read the full story here [SCMP/AFP, 19 July 2011]… (Read more)
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Author comment- Calming the seas between ASEAN, China
Last modified on 2011-07-20 02:31:11 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 13 July 2011, and in the Jakarta Post (Indonesia) on 18 July 2011. It was also featured in The Nation (Thailand) under the title “Calming the troubled waters between ASEAN and China” and in the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) under the title “Calm the waters” on 15 July 2011.
Demonstrations in Hanoi against China ended when the Vietnamese government finally acted on Sunday to round up protesters.
The rare public protests, held on weekends for over a month in front of the Chinese Embassy, employed nationalistic slogans and symbols. Thought to have been officially tolerated, or even encouraged, they started soon after China’s navy had turned back a Vietnamese oil-drilling research boat in a disputed area of the South China Seas.
This sets a potentially tense context to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), soon to be held in Bali, Indonesia. Association of South-east Asian Nations secretary-general Suri… (Read more)
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Simon Tay gives keynote speech at conference on APEC
Last modified on 2011-07-08 06:00:41 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay was a keynote speaker for the PECC-USAPC-SINCPEC Conference on “Growing APEC Economies: New Challenges and Approaches”.
The event was held between 29 to 30 June by the Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation (SINCPEC), together with the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) and the United States Asia Pacific Council (USAPC).
The conference focused on discussing ways to help APEC economies cope with external shocks such as the US Government’s second quantitative easing, and how countries can move away from export-driven development to alternatives such as services.
Speaking on the second day, Simon Tay told delegates how relations between the United States and ASEAN have changed following the 2008 financial crisis: there is a danger that ASEAN and the US are pulling apart.
ASEAN as a region remains the fourth-largest trading partner for the US, but there is also a growing sense of ASEAN regionalism that may exclude the US. H… (Read more)
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Author comment- Public debt, private prosperity
Last modified on 2011-07-08 03:50:41 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was featured in the TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 7 July 2011. It was also featured in the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) as “Unlocking prosperity”.
by Simon Tay
The world seems awash in public debt. Problems in Greece with its second bailout are the most prominent but other problem economies in Europe await. Across the Atlantic, the US political system is in a deadlock about containing the runaway federal deficit while many cities and states are struggling.
In contrast, most Asian governments have banked away surpluses and now hold comfortable reserves. Things could not seem more different. Trends, however, may be changing and not always for the better.
The recent revelation by China’s auditor-general about debts owed by local governments should be taken seriously. The China Daily described the US$1.65 trillion (S$2.02 trillion) of debt as posing a massive peril to the banking system, since 80 per cent is owed to China’s banks.
… (Read more)
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Tay speaks in The Economist’s Global Energy Conversation
Last modified on 2011-07-01 09:01:37 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay was part of an international telepresence panel on global energy demands, organised by The Economist magazine on 28 June 2011.
The Global Energy Conversation: Transitions from West to East involved 15 experts meeting simultaneously in London, Shanghai, and Singapore through virtual conferencing technology.
Over a thousand virtual audience members also logged in to ask questions and comment on the live programme.
Panelists were asked if it is fair to expect the development of countries like China and India to be cleaner than the West’s. Most agreed it is not fair, though several suggested that China and India will still pursue clean energy and sustainable policies due to their own self-interest.
Most of the panel were pessimistic on the likelihood of countries reaching a binding international agreement on climate change in the foreseeable future, echoing the sentiments of the virtual audience via an online poll. However, several panelists suggested indivi… (Read more)
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Author comment- Japan itself must come up with solution
Last modified on 2011-07-01 08:45:55 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper, 7 June 2011.
by Simon Tay
The fact that Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan survived last week’s no-confidence motion signals that the country’s triple tragedy is being compounded by a fourth.
After the earthquake and tsunami and with on-going uncertainty over nuclear power plants, Japanese society has responded with stoicism and solidarity. But Japanese politics is an emerging tragedy.
Mr Kan survived only by giving a vague promise to quit after the current crisis abates. His is only the latest twist in a long-drawn-out crisis of confidence, seeing five premiers in four years. Political divisions are not just between the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), so long in power but also within factions of the DPJ.
Mr Kan does not enjoy widespread support. But nor does any other politician. Now in opposition, the LDP is threatening to block the budget for reconstruct… (Read more)
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Author comment- IMF’s search for new chief
Last modified on 2011-07-01 08:42:50 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment was featured in an AFP article on 19 May 2011.
On the possibility of an Asian becoming the new chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after Dominique Strauss-Kahn stepped down, Tay said:
“The IMF is overdue for a relook at its European-only tradition. This seems outdated in a G20 world when the role of emerging economies and Asia is increasingly recognised as critical,” said Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“Having said that, the idea of an immediate appointment of an Asian to replace Strauss-Kahn is probably unwise and untimely. There is a great urgency and a lot will have to be done about European economies,” he said.
“The last thing the world needs now is an Asian outsider who may be resisted and even resented,” Tay said, suggesting an emerging-nation candidate could be best considered in one or two years.
Link to full article: Read more)
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Tay interviewed by NanFengChuang
Last modified on 2011-07-01 08:30:19 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay was interviewed by the NanFengChuang newspaper on 18 May 2011, commenting on the Singapore general elections.
Read the full article here (PDF, Chinese)…. (Read more)
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Author comment- What George Yeo’s loss means for Singapore
Last modified on 2011-07-01 07:53:38 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This commentary was published in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on the 9 May 2011.
by Simon Tay
One of the most significant outcomes of May 7 has been the defeat of Foreign Minister George Yeo in the Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC). It is the People’s Action Party’s first GRC loss, and Mr Yeo is the first core member of the Cabinet to be lost to the Opposition in a General Election.
Aljunied was considered vulnerable, for this was where the People’s Action Party scored its lowest margin of victory in the 2006 GE. And for all of Mr Yeo’s many brilliant qualities and strong presence in the new media, when the Workers’ Party nominated its star team, led by secretary-general Low Thia Khiang, the contest to secure the ground was always going to be hard.
Yet the result cannot be read simply as a question of personalities and local politics. Nor should the defeat obscure Mr Yeo’s many achievements – his electoral loss is a loss for Singapore.
Minister for… (Read more)
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Author comment- Quake reminds Asia that Japan is ‘one of us’
Last modified on 2011-07-01 08:05:35 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment was featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 14 Apr 2011.
by Simon Tay
When Japanese and ASEAN ministers met in Jakarta on Saturday, the moment was both poignant and potentially significant for future policy.
The meeting, called by ASEAN and hosted by current chair Indonesia, came just about a month after Japan suffered the twin tragedies of the earthquake and tsunami. Many Japanese citizens remain in temporary shelters even as the authorities grapple with leaks at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant.
The poignancy comes from the demonstration of solidarity among Asians. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono opened the meeting by expressing ASEAN’s intention to “enhance cooperation and respond quickly at a time when one of us faces a grave disaster”. Philippine Foreign Minister Albert Del Rosario was quoted as saying he believed Japan “will emerge and ASEAN will be with Japan all the way”.
The acknowledgment of Japan as “one of us”… (Read more)
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Author comment- Can only the West intervene?
Last modified on 2011-04-13 03:25:55 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This was published in TODAY, 4 Apr 2011. It was also published in the South China Morning Post as “Means For Peace” on 6 Apr 2011.
by Simon Tay
When the West intervened in Libya, many in Asia were silent but shook their heads. China might summarily have vetoed the United Nations Security Council resolution that authorised the use of “all necessary measures” but consciously abstained. This decision is quite a contrast to past criticisms over intervention in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere.
Most other Asian governments, like China, have avoided condemning intervention in Libya. India’s stance against the Western action is something of an exception. But Asian acquiescence should not be mistaken as acceptance. It is not principle that has guided them but pragmatic calculation once other Arabs supported the action in Libya. Questions continue to be raised across the region, even if few at present vent these publicly.
Asian attitudes can be i… (Read more)
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Author Simon Tay quoted in Fortune magazine
Last modified on 2011-03-22 07:08:30 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay, the chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, recently wrote a Jakarta Post op-ed pleading for regional cooperation in setting nuclear safety standards. “The Japanese situation is a sharp reminder to be humble in the face of the risks and to bring a pause to breakneck ambitions,” wrote Tay. “Countries that are vulnerable to earthquakes — especially Indonesia, but also some provinces in China — would be well served to re-look at safety issues.”… (Read more)
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Author comment- Japan gives Asia pause in its nuclear ambitions
Last modified on 2011-03-16 03:24:52 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This article was featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper and in the South China Morning Post on 14 Mar 2011.
Following the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan, attention has fallen not only on how the country is coping with the aftermath. There has also been urgent response to the danger that the Fukushima Diaichi plant, some 240 km north of Tokyo, might go critical.
An official at the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency was quoted as saying there was a high possibility of a partial meltdown. Just going by the numbers of people affected so far by exposure to radiation and mass evacuations, it is already perhaps the worst nuclear incident in Japan to date.
The Japanese are taking all possible emergency measures to cool the radioactive core, including pumping in seawater. Whether or not the worst is eventually avoided, questions are being asked about the future for nuclear power, not just for Japan itself – but even more so, for its Asian neighbours conte… (Read more)
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Author comment- Asia feels impact as Middle East awakens
Last modified on 2011-03-16 03:24:18 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment was featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 25 Feb 2011, and also in the South China Morning Post on 1 Mar 2011.
Thailand has sent ships to Libya to bring home workers affected by the disorder and violence there. China has taken precautionary steps to limit the Internet and quell smaller protests in some cities. Across Asia, stock markets have tumbled as oil prices rise, and companies with exposure to business in the Middle East have been especially affected.
The unfolding events in the Middle East have already affected Asia, and more impacts are possible. One key factor is that Asian economies depend heavily on the Middle East for oil and gas. The unforeseen and unprecedented events make Asians especially nervous as they are price takers. The key determinants are not what Asians do, but how these movements evolve among the Arabs and what the United States does in response.
The immediate analysis depends on the speed and scale of the revol… (Read more)
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Author comment- Realpolitik calls for dose of caution
Last modified on 2011-02-23 07:43:32 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This article was featured in the South China Morning Post and TODAY (Singapore) newspapers on 22 Feb 2011.
Shelling and shots on the Thai-Cambodian border this month have inflicted casualties and deaths among soldiers as well as civilians. Voices call for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to intervene. At its ministerial meeting today, the regional group must be seen to do something or lose credibility as a security community.
Realism is needed, however. We need to see why violence has flared repeatedly since 2008, when Khmer ownership of the Preah Vihear temple has been recognised since 1962, and understand why Cambodia seeks intervention while Thailand prefers bilateral discussions… (Read more)
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Hu’s the man
Last modified on 2011-02-01 07:10:30 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This article featured in the South China Morning Post on January 28, 2011 and in TODAY (Singapore) on January 27, 2011
by SIMON TAY
One hilarious artefact of the George W Bush years is a YouTube video in which comedians imitate then President Bush and United States Secretary of State Rice discussing China. Made in 2003, soon after Mr HuJintao first came into office, Mr Bush asks who is the President of China. The video updates the old skit by Abbott and Costello: “Who’s on First?”, confusing the question “who” with the answer “Hu”.
The recently concluded visit by President Hu to the US should yield no similar jokes. It was clear that the US administration knows Mr Hu and gave considerable attention to the visit. Such is the importance of China today in the post-crisis world.
Even more, it is clear that Mr Hu has studied and understood America. Onwhat could be his last official visit to the US before a new-generationleadership takes over, Mr Hu steadily… (Read more)
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After the rebound, the Rabbit brings adventure and caution
Last modified on 2011-02-01 07:09:28 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This article featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on January 28, 2010
by SIMON TAY
The high growth of 2010 has lifted the outlook in Singapore and across almost all of Asia. From the giants of China and India to smaller economies like Cambodia and Bangladesh, a pan-Asian story of growth has bred a sense of confidence in sharp contrast to prospects in Europe and North America.
Looking ahead, deep pockets of money and easy access to credit are making the obvious bet to put money in Asia. Today, valuations for business investments and housing in many cities are higher than even before the crisis. It would be dangerous, however, to assume that Asia has returned to where it was before the global financial crisis,… (Read more)
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Asia’s coming revolutions
Last modified on 2011-01-10 08:34:13 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 10 Jan 2011.
Many people talk of the rise of Asia. This is especially now in the post-crisis period when prospects for the United States and Europe seem quite weak for the short to medium term.
But the term “rise” is used by some to suggest something natural and irresistible. When we extrapolate the growth graphs into the future this way, it seems smooth, even if the incline is steep.
However, there are reasons to forecast bumps and sharp edges to that growth. There are also possible disjunctures and problems that, unless surmounted, can throw Asian growth off track. This is not only in business and economics but also in social and political systems.
Given this, rather than a smooth rise, Asia must expect transformation and indeed many revolutions from what we see currently.
FROM TRUCE TO PEACE
The first necessary Asian revolution will be for nations to move from truce and co-existence to peace and deeper cooperat… (Read more)
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Asia Alone honorable mention for best book of 2010
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:54:51 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
SIIA Chairman Simon Tay’s book Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide from America has been selected as one of the best books of 2010 by The Globalist, an online magazine on global affairs.
The Globalist is also featuring an excerpt from the book. … (Read more)
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The US-Asia relationship in 2010: Progress and problems
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:55:15 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment was originally published at East Asia Forum on December 30, 2011.
President Obama’s 10 day tour of Asia’s four largest democracies showed a continued commitment to engage Asia, even if difficult Tea Party politics at home might derail the practicalities of increased regional engagement. For Americans, President Obama brought home deliverables on jobs in India and helped lay groundwork for trade agreements with Korea. For some Asians, there is a feeling of relief that US-Asia relations will continue.
Yet while the trip was positive… (Read more)
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Author comment- Asia’s unstable rise will get tougher in 2011
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:46:22 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment featured in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 29 December 2010.
Many herald Asia’s rise in the wake of the financial crisis. Compared to the United States and Europe, prospects in the region do look good. Events both recent and over the year, however, warn us not to assume the phenomenon is irresistible. While rising, the region is exposed to continuing sources of instability.
The current turmoil on the Korean peninsula demonstrates this vividly.
An unresolved relic of the Cold War, Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions have been difficult and prolonged despite the diplomatic efforts of the six-party talks. But it was not nuclear warheads that have created the current turmoil.
A torpedo sank the Cheon… (Read more)
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Author comment- The Korea-US FTA: It is not only about the US and Korea
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:55:51 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Versions of this op-ed appeared in TODAY (Singapore) on December 8, 2010 and in the South China Morning Post on December 14, 2010. It discusses the wider implications for the US and Asia of the conclusion of the Korea-US free trade agreement.
The agreement on free trade between the United States and South Korea concluded last Friday is important not only for the two countries. There are wider implications for the US and Asia. New currents in American domestic politics, after the sweeping changes from the mid-term elections, can also be f… (Read more)
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Tay speaks at APEC CEO Summit, quoted in AFP
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:46:46 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
In his remarks, Mr Tay focused on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a starting point for a potential free trade agreement for the Asia-Pacific. The TPP currently includes four members (Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore) but is in negotiations with five others, including the United States.
At this year’s APEC, Japan discussed the possibility of it joining the grouping. However, Mr Tay tempered expectations, and was quoted in the AFP article as saying:
Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of Int… (Read more)
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Simon Tay quoted in the Financial Times
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:46:57 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay was quoted in The Financial Times on November 11, 2010 in a comment by Geoff Dyer on China’s regional relations.
“I fear we could be about to enter a much more rocky period,” says Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“The US is in danger of re-engaging in Asia on acrimonious terms,” says Mr Tay in Singapore. “If you are a strategic thinker in China, you do not need to be a paranoid conspiracy theorist to think that the US is trying to bandwagon Asia against China.” Some of the US statements have not gone down well… (Read more)
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Simon Tay audio interview at The Economist
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:47:09 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay recently spoke with The Economist to discuss the rise of China and why its neighbours hope for continued American engagement in the region. The audio interview is available here.… (Read more)
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Simon Tay features at the China Summit
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:47:18 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay featured at the China Summit organized by The Economist. Held in Beijing on November 3rd, the event attracted some 200 business leaders and Tay spoke about China’s rise in a multipolar world, drawing on themes from Asia Alone. US ambassador to China Jon Hunstman spoke on the same session…. (Read more)
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Tay to speak at APEC CEO Summit in Japan on November 12, 2010
Last modified on 2010-11-08 07:03:11 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay will speak at the APEC CEO Summit later this week. He will be a panelist on the second session, titled “Economic Dynamism: The Asia-Pacific and the Global Economy”.
APEC Leaders set to speak at the CEO Summit include US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Hu Jintao, as well as thought leaders, CEOs, and policymakers from the Asia-Pacific canada pharmacy region.
Tay recently returned from Beijing, China, where he spoke at the Economist Summit on November 3rd…. (Read more)
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Asia Alone reviewed in The Economist
Last modified on 2010-11-10 01:44:00 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
The Economist has published a review of Asia Alone, which is available online at this link.
‘Mr Tay argues, “it is possible and indeed desirable for China to rise and the United States to remain powerful and influential in Asia.” The hope must be that he is purchase drugs online right. But mutual suspicions of each other’s intentions have become deep-rooted. America and China still often play Asia as a zero-sum game.’… (Read more)
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Author comment- US-Asia Relations After the Crisis
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:49:46 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
SIIA Chairman Simon Tay has written a comment on US-Asia relations for Canadian foreign affairs magazine Global Brief.
The full text of the article is available through the link below:
http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2010/10/13/us-asia-relations-after-the-crisis/
… (Read more)
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Tay interviewed on Bloomberg, CNBC
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:49:37 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay has been featured on regional and international television news shows recently commenting on US-Asia relations as well as concerns over asset bubbles in Asia.
Bloomberg, September 2 “Obama Must Keep Constant Engagement with Asia”
… (Read more)
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Tay speaks in Bangkok
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:49:22 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay spoke on October 22 at the Institute of Security and International Studies, a leading Thai think tank.
Tay addressed current issues in US-Asia relations, the importance of interdependence, and the rivalries in Asia.
The talk was attended by Thai foreign ministry officials, business leaders and media.
The Nation reported on the talk here.… (Read more)
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Tay to speak in New Zealand
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:48:41 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay will travel to New Zealand in early October to speak on the ideas in Asia Alone.
He will be hosted by the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs for their Annual Foreign Policy lecture.
The talk will take place on October 12th at 5:30 PM in Wellington…. (Read more)
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Tay in Washington, DC this week
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:54:44 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay is visiting Washington, DC this week to speak at a conference on US-China relations and meet with officials.
On Monday, Tay will present at the Kissinger Institute Conference on US-China relations and give a Southeast Asian perspective on the world’s most important bilateral relationship. Later that day he will meet with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.
On Tuesday, Tay will give a morning presentation to a panel on Capitol Hill to Congressmen and their staffers.
On Wednesday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan foreign policy think tank, will host Simon… (Read more)
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VIDEO: Tay speaks at Asia Society, New York
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:48:31 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
The Asia Society in New York hosted author Simon Tay for a talk on September 16, 2010.
The full video of his presentation can be viewed here…. (Read more)
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Tay speaks at Foreign Ministry of Thailand
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:48:01 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay recently spoke at Thailand’s Foreign Ministry. The text of the summary is as follows:
Author Simon Tay recently accepted an invitation from the Foreign Ministry of Thailand to speak on “US-Asia Relations: Implications for ASEAN” on 6 September 2010 at its headquarters in Bangkok. The event, which was by invitation only, was part of the strategic talk series organized by the Regional Policy Unit at the Department of American and South Pacific Affairs. All 53 participants were high-level officials from various military and intelligence agencies, members of the diplomatic corps and media, leading academics, and government officials from within and outside the Foreign Ministry.
In his 30-minute talk, Tay began… (Read more)
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Forbes interviews Tay
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:48:15 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Simon Tay was recently interviewed by Forbes reporter Megha Bahree.
Transcript of the interview is available here…. (Read more)
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Tay essay in Foreign Affairs
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:48:21 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay has recently written an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine on China and India. The essay, titled “Interdependency Theory,” is available here.… (Read more)
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Financial Times reviews Asia Alone
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:50:31 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
David Pilling, the Financial Times’ Asia Editor, has reviewed Asia Alone.
Excerpts from the review include:
“Simon Tay, a Singaporean academic, fleshes out an Asian perspective in an area too often colonised by outsiders. Better still, he avoids the carping tone of those from the region who extol the tired righteousness of “Asian values”. His is a pragmatic, international voice that sees virtue in some sort of US presence in a region caught in Chinese headlights.”
“Mr Tay is too subtle to want the US to act as sheriff, a counterweight to China’s growing power. Instead, his thesis goes as follows. Since the second world war, the US has acted as a… (Read more)
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Business Standard reviews Asia Alone
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:50:41 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Neha Chowdhry of the Business Standard, an Indian financial daily newspaper, has reviewed Asia Alone.
Restating the status quo
Neha Chowdhry / New Delhi August 12, 2010, 0:42 IST
November is a busy month for the US when it comes to cementing its shifting relationship with Asia. The first Asian G20 Summit is being held in Seoul on the 11th and 13th, followed quickly by the Apec leaders’ meet in Yokohama on the 13th and 14th. Furthermore, the US mid-term elections are taking place on the 2nd, which puts pressure on the “Pacific President” to shore up promises to the Asian partners he is about to meet.
As global power moves eastward, the US is feeling the pressure to prioritise Asia as an economic and political partner, especially in the light of its own declining hegemony after the crisis. Amon… (Read more)
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Tay speaks at Keizai Koho Center talk in Tokyo
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:50:56 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay spoke recently on Asia-US relations at the Keidanren Kaikan in Tokyo, Japan to an audience of 143 business leaders, experts and academics.
Update: The Japan Times published a report on the talk, available here.
Tay spoke in conversation with Dr. Masashi Nishihara of the Research Institute for Peace and Security, and former president of Japan’s National Defense Academy. The talk was hosted by the Keizai Koho Center.
Attendees of the talk included business leaders from companies such as ANA, Canon, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota and many others. Media representatives from JiJi, the Kyodo News, the Sankei Shimbun, TV Asahi, and the Yomiuri Shimbun were also in attendance…. (Read more)
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Author comment- Amid floods, a picture of promise in South Asia
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:51:07 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This comment appeared in TODAY newspaper on August 23, 2010
Impressions of South Asia are diverse and difficult to reconcile. The predominant one is of India with its rapid economic growth, rivalling China.
At present, a quite different image is of the floods in Pakistan. Hopes for growth and fears of instability in the subcontinent intertwine.
Behind the human tragedy, governance and stability are at stake in Pakistan. President Asif Ali Zardari has been heavily criticised for not attending to the disaster as he insisted on carrying on with trips abroad.
Unless there is quick and effective response to the floods, the democratically-elected government could lose support.
If so, the country could swing back to military rule as it has before, or run to another extreme.
Given the still-controversial experience with its former President, General Pervez Musharraf, and the influence of the Taliban growing, a pro-Muslim government could instead emer… (Read more)
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Author comment- Protest, violence the norm in Thai politics?
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:45:15 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This article appeared in TODAY (Singapore) newspaper on 29 Jul 2010
The bomb that went off in Bangkok after Sunday’s by-election echoed the mass violence of April and May. Weeks have passed since the Red Shirt protesters were cleared from the city centre by the military, and during my visit at the weekend, life seems to have returned to normal, on the face of it. Shops and restaurants are busy with summer sales and a fast-growing economy.
But the burnt-out remains of Central World shopping complex, targeted by arsonists in May, tell us repairs and rebuilding are much needed. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who oversaw the military operation to restore order, has outlined steps for reconciliation and appointed an independent committee to propose reform.
Yet it seems not enough is being done quickly enough, especially about the events of May when nearly 90 people were killed. Emergency laws have been relaxed somewhat but remain in place for the city and many provinces… (Read more)
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Upcoming Talks on Asia Alone
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:51:26 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
August 3: Tokyo, Japan Keizai Koho Centre
August 4: Singapore Ministry of Education
August 21: Singapore Harvard HPAIR conference
September 17: New York Asia Society, New York
September 22: Washington, DC Center for Strategic and International Studies
October 12: Wellington, New Zealand Zealand Institute of International Affairs
For more information about these events, please contact media@asiaalone.com… (Read more)
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Author Comment – A Hot-Cold Goldilocks Economy Spells Trouble
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:51:38 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This article appeared in TODAY newspaper (Singapore) on 21 July 2010.
Europeans are asking Beijing to invest in their economy and the euro, even as China seeks to cool its own burgeoning growth rates. Some may see a triumph in this, that China is the big winner in the ongoing crisis.
When problems in Greece began to crystallise last year, one of their first efforts was to seek assistance from Beijing. Recently, Spain, another economy under scrutiny, issued a 10-year bond and allocated some US$500 million ($700 million) to China. Even the Chancellor of euro-giant Germany Angela Merkel was reassured during a state visit that the Chinese would continue to back the euro and hold European assets.
Some see Europe depending on China as a sign that the latter continues to grow in global stature, payback for its past humiliation by colonial powers. I see instead an unequal, hot-cold global economy that can cause problems.
Problems in the euro-zone loom large and will likely… (Read more)
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Asia Alone mentioned in Newsweek, New Straits Times
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:51:47 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Joshua Kurlantzick, “How Obama Lost His Asian Friends”, Newsweek, 12 Jul 2010
“…What’s more, while America stands aloof, Asia is building its own networks and institutions, which one day might exclude the United States. Besides the intra-Asian trade deals, Asian states are creating new security institutions with ASEAN as the core. In a new book titled Asia Alone, Singaporean analyst Simon Tay argues that ASEAN is increasingly becoming a regional power in its own right, forcing larger players like the U.S. and China to act more multilaterally.”
“Why Asia and US need to work together”, New Straits Times (Malaysia), 10 Jul 2010
“Associate Professor Simon Tay of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) yesterday spoke about the dangers of Asia going it alone during a forum organised by the Institute of Strategic an… (Read more)
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CFR’s Dr. Elizabeth Economy blogs about Asia Alone
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:51:55 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Dr. Elizabeth C. Economy, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, the leading American think tank on foreign policy, has written a post about Asia Alone.
Some of Dr. Economy’s words include:
“Tay is an informed and nuanced writer. He thus avoids the trap of many Asia hands (both those in Asia and those in the United States) who tend to see China (and the United States) as either a perpetrator of good or evil, with not much in between.”
“Now that it is out, I hope that a lot of people will read it. It is one of the best new books on Asia out there.”
“There is perhaps a third reason to pick up Tay’s book—it is just superlatively written. In addition to his full-time work in the political world, Tay writes novels, and it shows. The book is full of lively descriptions, anecdotes, and interviews. Pick it up for the plane or the train…or even the beach. You won’t be disappointed.”
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“Will Crisis Divide Asia from America?” – Tay to Speak at National Library
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:52:07 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
In the wake of the 2007-08 financial crisis, trends have emerged which point to Asia increasingly forging its own path, without America. In his new book, Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide from America, author Simon Tay elucidates such trends and argues that, for the benefit of both sides, US and Asia should continue to engage each other and move towards a new relationship in the post-crisis world. Tay argues that the rise of Asia and the development of closer regional bonds can occur simultaneously with continued US engagement.
- What are the long term trends that point to division between Asia and America? How did the financial cr… (Read more)
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Tay Talks About Asia Alone
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:52:13 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Author Simon Tay has been talking to groups about the main arguments in his book, Asia Alone. In late June, he spoke to a regional gathering of Price Waterhouse partners, at the Annual General meeting of the Singapore chapter of the International Federation of Women, and in a seminar in Brunei for the government’s Institute of Defence and Security Studies…. (Read more)
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Author Comment- The View from Asia
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:52:24 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
This column appeared in TODAY newspaper on 26 June 2010
In Shanghai recently, I dined at a stylish restaurant set amid a row of designer shops. It felt as if I was having dinner in New York’s Manhattan district, and when the bill came I realised it was just as expensive.
Over in New York, meanwhile, friends tell me that their summer sales are putting the Great Singapore Sale to shame.
It seems prices in major Chinese cities keep rising, while many in parts of America they are getting more affordable than ever.
The announcement by the People’s Bank of China that it will allow more flexibility in the value of the yuan ends the yuan’s stable exchange rate with the US dollar, set in July 2008. China will now manage the currency against a weighted basket of currencies, including the greenback, probably with a “creeping peg”.
Many expect the currency will appreciate; the only question is how much and how quickly. The move may be the start of the end of China as a chea… (Read more)
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Prof. Tommy Koh launches Asia Alone
Last modified on 2011-12-09 06:52:35 GMT. 0 comments. Top.
Professor and Ambassador-at-Large Tommy Koh kicked off the launch party for Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide on June 17, 2010.
Prof. Koh, former Singapore Ambassador to the United States, was guest-of-honor at the event and kind enough to give some remarks.
The event was generously hosted by Mr. Philip Ng, CEO of Far East Organization.
The Institute for Policy studies has posted a transcript of Professor Koh’s remarks.
More photos are below.
